North Hobbs, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

817
FXUS64 KMAF 060745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- A medium (20-50%) chance of thunderstorms is expected this
  afternoon across Southeast New Mexico, Northern Permian Basin,
  and near the Davis Mountains. Severe weather with a main threat
  of very large hail and damaging winds is possible. An isolated
  tornado can not be ruled out as well.

- The heat is on this weekend, with many locations reaching or
  exceeding 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

- Thunderstorm chances continue into next week (20-50% for most
  locations).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

While the thunderstorm coverage was less than anticipated for many
locations, the overall distribution of thunderstorms that did
develop was focused across the favored regions of Southeast New
Mexico and Davis Mountains as forecast. Keep this in mind as we talk
about tonight into Friday. The remaining showers and thunderstorms
are finally beginning to end early this morning across Pecos and
Terrell Counties. It should remain dry through the remainder of the
morning into the first half of the afternoon across the region.
Continued southeasterly winds, plentiful moisture, and lingering
cloud cover keep temperatures relatively warm through sunrise. Most
locations see middle 60s to lower 70s for temperatures to start the
day.

A very similar overall weather pattern remains in place this
afternoon across the Southern Great Plains. A broad upper-level low
pressure remains centered off the West Coast with a broad upper-
level high pressure across Northern Mexico and the Gulf States.
Temperatures will be a touch warmer with less morning cloud cover
and a touch stronger upper-level high pressure push most well into
the 90s to lower 100s. A series of two shortwaves move across the
Central and Southern Great Plains by afternoon. A stronger one digs
in from the Upper Rockies to the north and a weaker one lifts out of
Mexico to the south. These features will aid in the development of
afternoon thunderstorms across our region. Once again, the residual
cold front and outflow from the previous day will be situated across
portions of Eastern New Mexico into the Far Southern Texas
Panhandle. This corridor is expected to be one focus for
thunderstorms once again, including portions of Southeast New Mexico
and Northern Permian Basin. Similarly, the Davis and Glass Mountains
should favor an additional corridor of thunderstorm development.
This activity is expected to begin during the mid-afternoon and last
into the evening. Other locations between these two areas or
significantly towards the east look to remain high and dry outside
of these favored corridors. Severe weather is once again expected
with very large hail and damaging winds the main threats. This is
the result of continued favorable CAPE and shear profiles for hail-
producing thunderstorms. An isolated tornado threat remains, though
closer to the residual boundary would be the favored location should
any develop.

Any thunderstorms should largely dissipate before midnight with
quiet weather into Saturday morning. Once again, lingering cloud
cover, southeasterly winds, and rich moisture keep everyone warm
with upper 60s and lower 70s for many by sunrise. Saturday is
expected to be hot. Temperatures soar into 90s and 100s for the
region. Most locations should reach or exceed the century mark. Heat
products may be needed for portions of the Rio Grande as
temperatures close in on the 110 F mark. These warmer temperatures
are mainly the result of the strengthening upper-level high pressure
over northern Mexico. This simultaneously puts an end to rain
chances for most. The exception is the Davis Mountains due to
favorable upslope winds. A conditional threat may materialize
elsewhere along the I-20 corridor across the Eastern Permian Basin.
A positively-tilted shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains
into the Middle Mississippi River Valley by Saturday afternoon. This
may act to push a weak backdoor cold front into the region. This
front could be all that is required to initiate thunderstorms, but
this remains a localized conditional threat. If any significant
thunderstorms develop in either region, severe weather in the form
of large hail and damaging winds remains a possibility. Any
thunderstorms will taper off by evening.

Unfortunately, the heat continues to close out the weekend as
discussed in the long term.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The heat continues Saturday night through Sunday as the ridge begins
to shift further to the west. Widespread highs at or above the
century mark can be expected Sunday afternoon, and a number of
locations (especially along the Rio Grande) will be pushing Heat
Advisory criteria. Yet again, a thunderstorm or two may try to
develop in the mountains Sunday afternoon/evening (20-30% chance).
Additionally, by Sunday evening a front approaches the area,
allowing for some low thunderstorm chances to sneak back into
northeastern portions of the Permian Basin (20-40%).

The boundary pushes into the northern Permian Basin Monday, then
through the rest of the region Tuesday. The good news is this will
lower temperatures early next week (especially on Tuesday, where
widespread highs in the 80s can be expected). However the boundary,
coupled with pulses in the quasi-zonal/northwest flow aloft, will
also provide sufficient lift for thunderstorm development during
this time period (20-50% chances for most, up to 60% in the Davis
Mountains). Once again, MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of
generally 30-40 kts should allow at least a few storms to become
strong to severe on both days. Naturally, details will be refined as
we get closer to time, and the location of the main boundary (along
with any other outflow boundaries that develop) will influence the
risk of severe weather. Additional thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday (20-50% chance), but by the end of the week precipitation
chances gradually taper off and temperatures begin to warm back up.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. VCTS will exit
the FST vicinity over the next hour. No additional weather is
anticipated tonight. Southeasterly winds remain prevailing for
all terminals. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are again
possible. The most likely areas of impact should be similar to
today with PEQ, FST, CNM, and HOB having the greatest likelihood.
Confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  72 101  72 /  10  10  20   0
Carlsbad                 98  68 103  69 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   98  75 104  76 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  72 104  74 /  20  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  70  96  70 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                    93  65  99  67 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                    91  65  97  67 /  30  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     95  73 102  74 /  10  10  20   0
Odessa                   94  73 102  74 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     97  71 103  72 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...91